So, if you're in a good mood and you're feeling good about the world, you may want to skip this.

Floating in this cosmic jacuzzi
We are like frogs oblivious
To the water starting to boil
No one flinches
We all float face down

-Incubus, "Warning"

I've read a few articles lately and seen some scientific data that have lead me to some truly disturbing revelations. To put it mildly, we are fucked. Completely, totally, ineffably fucked.

While some still refuse to believe that global climate change is happening, others argue that it might be happening, but (if it is) we're not the cause, and still others think we can solve it (sorry, Al). The problem is so horrifyingly worse - the very fact that we're asking the question means it's too late. Game over. Get ready for Mad Max.

No, I am not kidding.

The conditions that make Earth habitable for the current array of life is unimaginably fragile. Far, far more fragile than most of the world understands. Over the last 10,000 years or so, we've had an enormous impact on our environment. We've driven species to extinction. We've raised the temperature of the atmosphere. We've changed land masses. We've ripped things from the very ground and burned them. We've become masters of our world! We are like GODS!

Well, gods with a dizzying lack of foresight and no way to repair the damage we've done in time to prevent our own extinction.

It starts with the collapse of the ecosystem. Within 50 years, the coral reefs will be almost completely wiped out. From the sea floor up, ecosystems will collapse. Microscopic life dies, and the next thing you know, blue whales go bye-bye. Fish populations disappear. Once the oceans become devoid of meaningful food, we'll turn inland. But that system has already begun to collapse, and will only be accelerated by the interconnectedness of our global ecosystem and the increased demand.

Following the beginning of the worst effects of the ecosystem collapse, society will break down. People will demand to eat (the nerve!) and civil unrest will lead to government crackdowns on scales not seen since WWII. Governments, unable to feed their citizens, will turn to other governments for help, but will find none. And then the wars will start. This time, it won't be "living space," but "somewhere that has food." If we're incredibly unlucky, a limited nuclear exchange might be in the offing. Because seriously, at this point, we're going to be begging for the end.

The population might top out around 9 billion. After that, the proverbial four horsemen are going to annihilate a large swath of that. 50-75% attrition in under 50 years. The die-off will be catastrophic.

At some point, a sustainable population level may emerge in an area that still has some sort of food source. But we're looking at massive extinctions worldwide. It's quite possible that cockroaches and a few other hardy low-order creatures might be all that's left... in under 200 years.


So, what do I have to back this up? Even if all 6.5 billion people on the planet put Al Gore's every recommendation into practice, we'd cut a whopping 21% of our harmful emissions. 21%. Less than a quarter. The other 79%? Industry. Good luck changing that paradigm in the next five minutes.

All those emissions are raising the global temperature, which really sucks. Ice cap melting, and whatnot aside, though, there are bigger problems. We're dumping billions of tons of pollutants into the sea. We're killing whole sections of the ocean. And all of those greenhouse gases are also being absorbed into the oceans, raising those temperatures and throwing off the chemistry. Might not be a big deal for a whale, but when its food source is dead because it couldn't deal with a 1 degree change and a 1-point pH shift, that whale is pretty screwed - just like the rest of us.

We would have to cut worldwide emissions by nearly 100% yesterday in order to simply halt the damage we've already caused, but China is opening up a new coal-fired power plant every two weeks.

And then there's the strain we're already putting on our food supply. To fill an SUV's gas tank with ethanol takes enough corn to feed one person for one year. Think of the magnitude of that when our gas is required to have 10% ethanol. In Haiti, people are already rioting because they're dying of malnutrition. Same in Africa. In Southeast Asia, rice crops are faltering. Countries are blocking exports in order to feed their own people, leaving countries that rely on those exports to starve. Notice that the price of rice and wheat have tripled lately? This is not a momentary uptick, it's a trend. Fuel is more expensive, meaning that food is more expensive to transport.

In the Western world, where we spend less than 10% of our income on food, this is a minor inconvenience. But in developing or impoverished nations, that ratio is closer to 50% - and the cost of basic food just tripled. Do the math. My predictions aren't doomsaying, they're already fucking happening. This is real shit, people, this is a prelude to extinction. And it's not a long, slow slip into decline, it's going to be short, brutal, and leave what's left of us begging for the sweet, sweet release of death. And by "us," I actually mean you and me.


Have a nice day!

-pb