I absolutely hate the word "electability." Seriously. It gave is John Kerry, because a bunch of people though "sure, this guy is electable, whereas Howard Dean is just a lunatic." So, instead of going with the more progressive candidate, the one who fit in better with the party's ideals and had the youth vote fired up, Democrats chose the more "electable" candidate. It was important to win. Too bad the "electable" candidate lost and then couldn't even be bothered to count the votes (which, regardless of whether or not that would have swung the decision, he still would have been virtually tied).

So, why do I bring this up? Because it's happening all over again, but this time, both sides are plagued with it. Is Clinton more "electable?" Is Obama less "electable?" Is the same true of John McCain and Mitt Romney/Mike Huckabee? Allow me to prognosticate and pontificate...

Hillary Clinton: Dems love her. Though she polls at essentially 50% against Barack Obama, 84% of Democrats say that they'd be happy with her as the nominee. But in the general, no one gives a flying fuck what Democrats think, because she'll get their votes. What we're worried about is independents and moderate Republicans. Can she steal them?

I think the answer might be "yes," but the caveat here is "will it matter?" She's such a polarizing factor, the Conservative's bugbear, that she might create a bigger Republican turnout for her opponent (regardless of who it is), nullifying her support among independents and moderates. That, and she's not likely to energize the Democratic faithful. I can almost guarantee that the campaign isn't going to be about issues, either. Mudslinging will be the order of the day for three months between the convention and the election. You're not likely to hear her enumerate one thing about herself. All the information you get on her will come from her opponent. Of course, all the information you'll get from him will come from her, so it'll come down to (once again), the lesser of two evils. Electable? Probably. Going to collect a broad array of support and win convincingly? Not likely.

Barack Obama: Dems love him. Though he polls at essentially 50% against Hillary Clinton, 84% of Democrats say that they'd be happy with him as the nominee. But in the general, no one gives a flying fuck what Democrats think, because he'll get their votes. What we're worried about is independents and moderate Republicans. Can he steal them? (This sounds strangely familiar)...

I think the answer is "yes." Caveat? I think he might rile up the "racist" vote in the South. Of course, that cuts both ways. He's likely to drag every Bobby Ray, Emmy Sue and Roscoe in white-hood-and-burning-cross territory, but he's just as likely to have the African-American vote out in droves. I don't want to sound racist here, so please don't get me wrong. I'm not buying into that myth that white folks won't vote for him (because my flist is filled with people who would love to prove you wrong, as is North Dakota), and I'm not buying into that myth that black people will only vote for him because he's black. The fact remains, though, that there will be a segment of the white population that votes against him because he's black, and there's no denying that blacks will turn out for him - but they're just as likely to turn out for Clinton... they'll just probably be even more ready to turn out for Obama.

I think Obama is likely to cause Republicans who are unhappy with their choices to just stay home. Not that I'm big on a disconnected and disaffected segment of the population, but this isn't for shits and giggles here. If Obama manages to whip more than 1/2 of the "I was actually going to vote" population into voting for him, and 1/10 of the rest just throw up their hands and say "fuckit, let's wait until 2012," then that's just padding the margin. As for that "I was actually going to vote" population, I think Barack Obama stands a much better chance of getting out the vote. He's an energizer, and I don't mean bunny. He walks into a room, talks for five minutes, and people stream onto the street ready to spread the Gospel of Obama. Seriously. I've been there. I've seen it. He wasn't even running yet when I heard him talk, and seriously, people just wanted to touch him. They wanted to vote for him right there. I did.

And, while I assume most candidates elicit that sort of response from throngs of their own faithful, I point to the polls that show that where Obama goes and campaigns, his numbers rise drastically. Take Washington's caucuses, for example. Back in October, Hillary Clinton held a 48% lead over the entire field of Democrats. Obama had a 22% share. Flash forward a few months and some campaigning, and Obama mops the floor with Clinton, 53%-40%.

Electable? Probably. Current polling says that he'd go up almost 10% on McCain. "Electable" really isn't good enough here, though. "Recount-proof win" is what we're looking for.

John McCain: The presumptive front-runner for the Republican nomination, McCain seems to be the John Kerry of 2008. Plenty of buyer's remorse from Republicans, and the primaries are only jsut past the halfway mark. Allow me to enumerate a list of who hates John McCain:

1. Anti-abortion fanatics. McCain apparently doesn't blow up clinics himself, so he's got no cred.
2. Anti-gay fanatics. McCain hasn't called for the lynching of every homosexual, so he must want to marry your ass off to some queer.
3. Evangelicals. Aside from not being anti-abortion and anti-gay enough, these people think he's not Christian enough, because he's divorced, and that's apparently worse than supporting abortion before it became politically expedient to oppose it.
4. Fiscal conservatives. He opposed Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy before he supported them. Remember, if you supported a position at one point, but you are now against it, that means you actually support the former position (unless you're Mitt Romney).
5. Neo-Cons. These people chugged gallons and gallons of McCain's "I'm a Maverick Liberal who votes my conscience and party be damned" Kool-Aid. Funny, considering he's one of the most conservative Senators in Congress and supports Bush more than most of the Republican delegation. Sometimes, when you lie, the people you wanted to know it was a lie actually believe it.
6. Moderate Republicans. Now, I know that a lot of them still like McCain, but there's a segment of them who haven't drank his Kool-Aid and see him as the Bush crony that he is. They're pretty much tired of looking at their party and hanging their head in shame. They're ready to bolt... but maybe not for Hillary Clinton.

There are some prominent Neo-Con movers and shakers who, when asked "are you willing to throw this and wait until 2012?" say "Well, we're, uh... that's not an unforeseeable scenario..."

Electable? Probably, but it would likely take a gaffe from his opponent or some sort of October Surprise... which isn't unlikely, either. So, regardless of the fact that his own party isn't so happy with him, he's still in this thing. Although, one can hope that McCain is this generation's George McGovern or Walter Mondale...

Mitt Romney: He's out, but he's still on ballots, and there's still the chance that the delegates he's received could go to Huckabee if this thing gets close... Look for him coming this November to a Vice Presidential ballot near you!

Mike Huckabee: He's got a long way to go to get into this thing, but he's won everything since Super Duper Trogdor Omega Supreme Tuesday (except for Washington, but the jury's still out on that, and at the very least, he was damn close). Even if he manages to pull this off, what does he have going for him? Neo-Cons aren't exactly in love with him, but Romney on the ticket might help with that. Evangelicals are still a bit wary of him, but in the general, they'd be a huge force for him. Like McCain, however, his lack of Conservative Cred can be used against him. He's weak on immigration, foreign policy, taxes, and pretty much everything but praising Jeezus.

Electable? Let's put it this way: If he manages to win the primary and wins the general, we've entered the fucking Twilight Zone. Because if it happens, that means that some serious shit happened and a whole lot of Americans got replaced with Rapture-happy pod people who staggered to the voting booth. If it's Huckabee, seriously, Europe? Please liberate us.

So that's that. Electable? Yeah, most of them. Only one of them gets to look back and say that they were really, truly electable, though.

-pb